Last night I simulated 903 games of Fox in the Forest using the Wolf in the Woods Monte Carlo Tree Search AI playing against itself. This website and Wolf in the Woods are in no way endorsed by or affiliated with Fox in the Forest. As I've said before this AI is very basic but it is quite competent given that it has a perfect memory and simulates 100 possible plays each time it determines which card it should play.
In Fox in the Forest there are 3 suits which each contain cards valued 1-11. Each hand consists of 13 tricks. If you take 7-9 tricks you are "victorious" and earn 6 points but if you take 10 or more you are "greedy" and receive no points. If you take 0-3 tricks you are "humble" and get 6 points.
Out of the simulated games the AI only achieved humble wins 30% of the time and victorious wins 70% of the time. There is much less margin for error in a humble victory so this makes sense. Below is a graph of the total value of all of the cards added up matched to the number of times that total happened and what type of win that total value was associated with. The lowest total recorded for a victorious win was 60 and the highest was 102 even though possible hand values range up to 121 but the more powerful the hand the easier it is to be greedy. Humble win total hand values ranged from 52 to 89. One thing that is really interesting is how much overlap there is. I think that's part of what makes Fox in the Forest so much fun. Using special abilities you can make a bad hand better and find ways to trap your opponent and pull off a win even if you don't have what initially looks like a good hand.
The next graph shows, on average, how many of a given card value were present in a hand that was played to either a humble win or a victorious win. Nines are treated as trump so it makes sense that hands that went on to a victorious win had 1.4 nines on average and this is a very dangerous card for a humble win so, more often than not, humble hands did not have any nines.See if you can either humbly or victoriously defeat the AI by heading to wolfinthewoods.playagame.app and clicking on the Play the bot button.